{"id":3362,"date":"2026-05-25T17:57:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T15:57:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dotacje-online.pl\/?p=3362"},"modified":"2026-10-23T06:27:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T04:27:18","slug":"prognoza-przychodow-i-kosztow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dotacje-online.pl\/en\/prognoza-przychodow-i-kosztow\/","title":{"rendered":"Revenue and cost forecast in a project &#8211; how to prepare it?"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>\n.dto-artykul{\n  --dto-akcent: var(--ast-global-color-0, #1559b0);\n  --dto-tekst: #2a2f37;\n  --dto-tekst-mocny: #161a20;\n  --dto-tlo: #f3f6fa;\n  --dto-linia: #dde4ee;\n  color: var(--dto-tekst);\n  font-size: 1.0625rem;\n  line-height: 1.8;\n  max-width: 44rem;\n  margin-inline: auto;\n}\n.dto-artykul p{ margin: 0 0 1.15em; }\n.dto-artykul strong{ color: var(--dto-tekst-mocny); font-weight: 600; }\n\n\/* Akapit otwieraj\u0105cy *\/\n.dto-artykul p.dto-lead{\n  font-size: 1.16em;\n  line-height: 1.72;\n  color: var(--dto-tekst-mocny);\n  margin-bottom: 2em;\n}\n\n\/* Nag\u0142\u00f3wki H2 \u2013 mniejsze, z kr\u00f3tk\u0105 lini\u0105 akcentu nad tytu\u0142em *\/\n.dto-artykul h2.wp-block-heading{\n  font-size: clamp(1.28rem, 1.05rem + 0.85vw, 1.58rem);\n  line-height: 1.35;\n  font-weight: 600;\n  letter-spacing: -0.005em;\n  color: var(--dto-tekst-mocny);\n  margin: 2.8em 0 0.9em;\n  padding-top: 1.1em;\n  background: linear-gradient(var(--dto-akcent), var(--dto-akcent)) top left \/ 2.75rem 3px no-repeat;\n}\n\n\/* Nag\u0142\u00f3wki H3 *\/\n.dto-artykul h3.wp-block-heading{\n  font-size: clamp(1.06rem, 0.98rem + 0.35vw, 1.2rem);\n  line-height: 1.4;\n  font-weight: 600;\n  color: var(--dto-akcent);\n  margin: 2em 0 0.55em;\n}\n\n\/* Linki w tre\u015bci *\/\n.dto-artykul a{\n  color: var(--dto-akcent);\n  text-decoration: underline;\n  text-decoration-thickness: 1px;\n  text-underline-offset: 0.2em;\n}\n.dto-artykul a:hover{ text-decoration-thickness: 2px; }\n.dto-artykul a:focus-visible{ outline: 2px solid var(--dto-akcent); outline-offset: 3px; border-radius: 2px; }\n\n\/* Kluczowe tezy *\/\n.dto-artykul p.dto-teza{\n  margin: 1.8em 0;\n  padding: 0.95em 1.25em;\n  border-left: 3px solid var(--dto-akcent);\n  background: var(--dto-tlo);\n  border-radius: 0 6px 6px 0;\n  font-size: 1.04em;\n  line-height: 1.7;\n}\n\n\/* Lista z wyr\u00f3\u017cnionym t\u0142em *\/\n.dto-artykul ul.dto-pytania{\n  list-style: none;\n  margin: 1.2em 0 1.8em;\n  padding: 0.6em 1.25em;\n  background: var(--dto-tlo);\n  border-radius: 8px;\n}\n.dto-artykul ul.dto-pytania li{\n  margin: 0;\n  padding: 0.55em 0 0.55em 1.3em;\n  position: relative;\n  border-bottom: 1px solid var(--dto-linia);\n}\n.dto-artykul ul.dto-pytania li:last-child{ border-bottom: 0; }\n.dto-artykul ul.dto-pytania li::before{\n  content: \"\";\n  position: absolute;\n  left: 0;\n  top: 1.2em;\n  width: 6px;\n  height: 6px;\n  border-radius: 50%;\n  background: var(--dto-akcent);\n}\n\n\/* Listy wyliczeniowe *\/\n.dto-artykul ul.dto-lista{\n  list-style: none;\n  margin: 1em 0 1.6em;\n  padding: 0;\n}\n.dto-artykul ul.dto-lista li{\n  position: relative;\n  margin: 0 0 0.55em;\n  padding-left: 1.3em;\n}\n.dto-artykul ul.dto-lista li::before{\n  content: \"\";\n  position: absolute;\n  left: 0.15em;\n  top: 0.72em;\n  width: 6px;\n  height: 6px;\n  border-radius: 50%;\n  background: var(--dto-akcent);\n}\n\n\/* Wezwanie do dzia\u0142ania *\/\n.dto-artykul p.dto-cta{\n  margin: 2em 0;\n  padding: 1.2em 1.4em;\n  border: 1px solid var(--dto-linia);\n  border-radius: 8px;\n  text-align: center;\n}\n.dto-artykul p.dto-cta strong{ display: block; margin-bottom: 0.9em; }\n.dto-artykul p.dto-cta a{\n  display: inline-block;\n  margin-bottom: 0.35em;\n  padding: 0.65em 1.4em;\n  background: var(--dto-akcent);\n  color: #fff;\n  font-weight: 600;\n  text-decoration: none;\n  border-radius: 6px;\n}\n.dto-artykul p.dto-cta a:hover{ filter: brightness(1.08); }\n\n\/* Autor *\/\n.dto-artykul .dto-autor{\n  margin-top: 2.6em;\n  padding-top: 1.1em;\n  border-top: 1px solid var(--dto-linia);\n  font-size: 0.95em;\n  line-height: 1.5;\n}\n.dto-artykul .dto-autor p{ margin: 0 0 0.2em; }\n\n@media (max-width: 600px){\n  .dto-artykul{ font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; }\n  .dto-artykul p.dto-lead{ font-size: 1.08em; }\n  .dto-artykul p.dto-teza{ padding: 0.85em 1em; }\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group dto-artykul is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"dto-lead wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The revenue and cost forecast is one of the key elements of a grant application.<\/strong> Institutions assessing projects \u2013 whether under EU funds, national or regional programmes \u2013 treat it as evidence of the feasibility and profitability of the planned investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"dto-teza wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Errors at the forecasting stage result not only in a lower score<\/strong>, but often in the rejection of the application or the need to repay funds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This article explains step by step how to prepare a credible and complete financial forecast in a grant project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is a financial forecast in a project and why does it matter?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the context of grants, a financial forecast is a structured statement of projected cash flows, sales revenue and operating and investment costs. It usually covers the project implementation period and its durability period \u2013 most often 3 or 5 years from the final payment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Its function in the application documentation is multidimensional:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list dto-pytania\">\n<li>in certain types of projects, it forms the basis for calculating the funding gap and thus the amount of permissible funding,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>it confirms the applicant's ability to finance the own contribution and operating costs after the project ends,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>it documents the financial sustainability of the undertaking, the assessment of which is one of the substantive criteria in most calls,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>it demonstrates that the investment will not generate excessive profit exceeding the limits resulting from State aid rules.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In European Funds programmes implemented by PARP, BGK or regional institutions, financial forecasts are a mandatory or highly scored element. The detailed requirements are set out in each case in the call rules and the instructions for completing the application.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What elements should a financial forecast contain?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The scope of the forecast depends on the type of project, the value of the investment and the requirements of the specific programme. Nevertheless, the vast majority of calls require the following components.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Revenue forecast<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The revenue forecast should indicate:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list dto-lista\">\n<li>sources of revenue (sales of products, services, rental, licences, etc.),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>sales volume in subsequent years broken down by category,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>assumed unit prices and their justification (market benchmarks, price lists, preliminary agreements),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the annual revenue growth rate together with its justification,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>seasonality of the business, if it has a significant impact on cash flows.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Assessing institutions are particularly critical of applications in which <strong>revenue growth after the project ends is abrupt and unjustified<\/strong>. The assumptions adopted must be realistic, consistent with the company's financial history (if the business is already operating) and in line with market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Operating cost forecast<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the cost side, the forecast should include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list dto-lista\">\n<li>variable costs (materials, raw materials, goods, subcontracting) linked to production or sales volume,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>fixed costs (salaries, rent, utilities, insurance, legal and accounting services),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>depreciation and amortisation of fixed assets and intangible assets financed under the project,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>financial costs, including interest on bank credit or loans taken out for the own contribution,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>planned provisions or expenditure on maintaining the infrastructure purchased.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Profit and loss account and cash flows<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The cost and revenue forecast should be supplemented by:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list dto-lista\">\n<li>a projected profit and loss account (P&amp;L) for the entire durability period,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a cash flow forecast confirming the financial liquidity of the project,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>an opening and closing balance sheet, if required by the assessing institution.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some programmes offer their own financial spreadsheet templates. <strong>It is worth using them<\/strong>, as assessing institutions verify the consistency of the data with the fields in the application. Document templates and financial guidelines are published by, among others, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.parp.gov.pl\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Polish Agency for Enterprise Development (PARP)<\/a> and the Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy on the portal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.funduszeeuropejskie.gov.pl\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">funduszeeuropejskie.gov.pl<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to build credible assumptions for the forecast?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"dto-teza wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest mistake made by applicants is <strong>building the forecast \u201cbackwards from the result\u201d<\/strong> \u2013 that is, adopting assumptions that justify a result decided in advance. The correct approach takes the reverse order: first a realistic analysis of the market and operational capabilities, then the figures that follow from it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Data sources for revenue assumptions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A credible revenue forecast is built on the basis of:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list dto-lista\">\n<li>the company's historical financial data (at least the last 2\u20133 financial years),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>agreements, letters of intent or orders confirming future demand,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>market analyses, industry reports or data from <a href=\"https:\/\/stat.gov.pl\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Statistics Poland (GUS)<\/a> concerning the given segment,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>comparison with entities with a similar business profile (benchmarking),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>an analysis of local or regional demand for the product or service offered.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cost calculation methodology<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Costs should be based on specific price quotations, market rates or internal operating data, not on \u201cexpert estimates\u201d without documented support. In particular:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list dto-pytania\">\n<li><strong>salaries<\/strong> \u2013 should be based on current market rates or existing employment contracts,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>utility and operating costs<\/strong> \u2013 on the basis of historical consumption or technical standards,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>depreciation<\/strong> \u2013 in accordance with the applicable tax rates and accounting principles,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>financing costs<\/strong> \u2013 on the basis of bank offers or leasing agreements.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sensitivity analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Increasingly, assessing institutions require or award points for a sensitivity analysis, i.e. checking how a change in key variables (e.g. a 10\u201320% fall in revenue, an increase in material costs) will affect the project's results. <strong>Its purpose is to confirm that the project remains financially sustainable even in a pessimistic scenario.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The most common mistakes in financial forecasts in grant applications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Based on advisory practice, the following categories of errors can be identified as those that most often result in a lower score or a request for supplementary information:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list dto-pytania\">\n<li>lack of consistency between the financial forecast and the project schedule (e.g. revenue appears before the investment is completed),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>revenue growth assumptions not justified by market data \u2013 especially an abrupt increase in year 1 after the project ends,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>failure to account for fixed costs during the start-up period, when revenue is still low,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ignoring the need to replace or service the fixed assets purchased,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>no link between the forecast assumptions and the description of the sales or marketing strategy,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>inconsistency between the data in the forecast and the data in the financial statements attached to the application,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>using an overly optimistic baseline scenario without a variant analysis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The financial forecast, the funding gap and the level of funding<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In certain types of revenue-generating projects \u2013 primarily in infrastructure investments, but also in some cultural, sports, tourism or energy projects \u2013 the financial forecast is directly linked to the calculation of the funding gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the 2014\u20132020 perspective, this mechanism resulted from Article 61 of Regulation No 1303\/2013. In the 2021\u20132027 perspective, the general rule on revenue-generating projects was not repeated in the Common Provisions Regulation. The funding gap or operating profit method now results primarily from State aid rules \u2013 including <a href=\"https:\/\/eur-lex.europa.eu\/legal-content\/EN\/TXT\/?uri=CELEX:32014R0651\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Commission Regulation (EU) No 651\/2014 (GBER)<\/a> for selected categories of aid \u2013 and from the rules of specific calls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"dto-teza wp-block-paragraph\">To put it simply: <strong>the higher the projected profitability of the project, the lower the permissible level of funding<\/strong>. Deliberately overstating costs or understating revenue may be considered an irregularity and result in a financial correction or exclusion from the possibility of applying for funds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The detailed rules for calculating the funding gap, where applicable, are set out in the call rules and the relevant legal basis for granting State aid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">When is it worth using an expert's help with financial forecasting?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Preparing a financial forecast yourself is possible for simple investment projects with a clear revenue model. However, an adviser's support becomes important when:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list dto-lista\">\n<li>the project has multiple components or involves a new business model,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the applicant has no financial history (start-up, new entity),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a funding gap analysis or a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is required,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the programme requires a forecast for a period of 10\u201320 years (e.g. infrastructure projects),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the assessing institution uses its own analytical tools and models with which the applicant has had no previous contact.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"dto-cta wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>If you need support at the stage of preparing the financial documentation for your application, please get in touch.<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dotacje-online.pl\/en\/kontakt\/\">Contact an expert<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The full scope of support is described in <a href=\"https:\/\/dotacje-online.pl\/en\/uslugi\/\">grant advisory services<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Check available grants for your project<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before you start preparing the forecast, it is worth verifying whether the planned investment qualifies for the support programmes currently available. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mapa-dotacji.pl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The free grant search engine<\/a> lets you check in just a few minutes the available financing instruments matched to your business profile, location and type of project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additional information on current calls, formal requirements and assessment criteria is available in the <a href=\"https:\/\/dotacje-online.pl\/en\/baza-wiedzy\/\">dotacje-online.pl knowledge base<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group dto-autor is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Author: <a href=\"https:\/\/dotacje-online.pl\/en\/dariusz-kozakiewicz-ekspert-ds-funduszy-europejskich\/\">Dariusz Kozakiewicz<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">EU funding expert<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prognoza przychod\u00f3w i koszt\u00f3w to jeden z kluczowych element\u00f3w wniosku o dotacj\u0119. Instytucje oceniaj\u0105ce projekty &#8211; czy to w ramach funduszy unijnych, program\u00f3w krajowych, czy regionalnych &#8211; traktuj\u0105 j\u0105 jako dow\u00f3d realno\u015bci i op\u0142acalno\u015bci planowanej inwestycji. B\u0142\u0119dy na etapie prognozowania skutkuj\u0105 nie tylko obni\u017ceniem oceny, ale nierzadko odrzuceniem wniosku lub konieczno\u015bci\u0105 zwrotu \u015brodk\u00f3w. Artyku\u0142 wyja\u015bnia krok po kroku, jak przygotowa\u0107 wiarygodn\u0105 i kompletn\u0105 prognoz\u0119 finansow\u0105 w projekcie dotacyjnym.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"","_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"","rank_math_title":"","rank_math_description":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":"","_aioseop_title":"","_aioseop_description":""},"categories":[128],"tags":[115,186,131,195,194,196,163],"class_list":["post-3362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-baza-wiedzy","tag-dofinansowanie-dla-firm","tag-fundusze-unijne","tag-koszty-kwalifikowane","tag-luka-finansowa","tag-prognoza-finansowa","tag-trwalosc-projektu","tag-wniosek-o-dotacje"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.4 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jak przygotowa\u0107 wiarygodn\u0105 prognoz\u0119 finansow\u0105 do wniosku o dofinansowanie? 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